Gillard’s future if the coalition forms government


The counting currently has the Coalition likely to win one more seat than Labor. And while this doesn’t mean that the independents will support an Abbott government, it does raise the issue of the future direction of the ALP. With likely state level defeats in the near future in NSW and Qld, a loss of government at the federal level means that there may be a ‘call for blood’ by some sections of the party. In particular, will Gillard be blamed for the loss and replaced? And if so, by whom?

I will not speculate on the second question, but on the former, I think it would be a major loss for the ALP and for Australia if a post-election blood bath leads to a change in leadership for the ALP. Gillard was impressive during the election campaign. While there has been a focus on Abbott’s ‘surprising’ success, the campaign was very much about the two individual leaders (hey – there were not many policies to focus on). The campaign showed that the two leaders, despite there differing styles, could relate to the electorate and handle themselves well. Indeed, the campaign was notable for the lack of significant ‘others’ shining in either party. It was the Tony and Julia show. So even if the outcome of the weekend is a coalition government, I for one hope that our first female Prime Minister gets another chance to apply to the electorate for the job in three years time.

7 Responses to "Gillard’s future if the coalition forms government"
  1. I agree that Gillard is a convincing political performer and clearly remains the best leader for the ALP at this stage.
    However, she seriously needs to get some policy weight in her office or into her head. Her biggest failures have all been of this nature: Medicare Gold, Computers in Schools, Building the Education Revolution, East Timor Solution, Cash for Clunkers, Citizens Assembly, etc.

  2. Gillard was impressive during the election campaign.”
    If by “impressive” you mean that she was very good at fooling the Australian people into thinking she’d be able to properly manage our cash, in spite of all the evidence to the contrary, I agree. But this should hardly be the reason to keep an incompetent liar in office, or in any party’s leadership role, I would say. She was ultimately responsible by the fantastic feat of making Abbott look good in comparison. Isn’t that impressive?

  3. “Gillard was impressive during the election campaign.” I think you would be in the minority here Stephen. I might agree that she was as impressive as anyone else. More pertinently, there is no obvious successor apparent (at least to men with faces).

    It would also be rather a pity to have the first female PM crash and burn in such a manner.

  4. Centrebet has Shorten as the favourite to lead the ALP to the next election so my instinct tells me that this is the mst likely outcome.

  5. But didn’t Centrebet get the election result wrong? The infallibility of the betting markets looks to be debunked.

  6. Centrebet didn’t get the election wrong. They predicted that there was about a 60-70 per cent chance of Gillard winning the election. Or, that if the election was conducted 10 times, Gillard might be expected to win 6-7 times and Abbott, 3-4 times.

  7. Chris, when you’re dealing with prediction, there is no such thing as a perfectly accurate predictor. My reason for relying on betting and prediction markets is because I believe that they are the most accurate predictors out there.
    However, Centrebet did predict that the ALP will form government (which did happen) and that the Coalition will gain seats.

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