Back to the future in the football

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Perhaps it is time for the AFL and NRL to recognise that their attempts to colonise non-code states have pretty much failed. On the weekend the two grand finals represented ‘back to the future’ moments: two Melbourne teams in the AFL and two Sydney teams in the NRL. The AFL won the largest number of viewers (as noted here) but the interesting feature is not the number of viewers but the spread.

The AFL Grand Final re-match won out over the NRL because it had a lot of viewers across all five cities – a whopping 1.311 million in Melbourne, 405,000 in Sydney, 375,000 in Brisbane, 274,000 in Adelaide and 314,000 in Perth.

The NRL Grand Final scored monster ratings in Sydney and Brisbane (1.127 million and 635,000 respectively) but was ignored by other cities. Only 221,000 Melbourne viewers tuned in. Adelaide had 33,000 and Perth 75,000.

It is clear that the penalties on the Melbourne Storm have wiped out any Rugby League interest in Melbourne (expats from Queensland and NSW excepted). And there is even less interest in Perth and Adelaide.

For the AFL, Brisbane is a beacon. In population adjusted terms almost as many people in Brisbane watched the AFL grand final replay as in Perth. But as soon as the Swans are out of contention, Sydney couldn’t care less about the AFL (Southern and Western expats excepted).

With these numbers, you have to really wonder about the business sense of the AFL expansion into Western Sydney.

3 Responses to "Back to the future in the football"
  1. There is little interest in rugby league in Melbourne because at most four matches each year (State of Origin and the grand final) are shown on free-to-air television.
    The advertising accompanying the launch of GEM – latest Channel 9 addition to multi-channel broadcasting – features rugby league prominently. It would be worth coming back and reconsidering this test in twelve month if rugby league is featured regularly on this channel in Melbourne.

  2. <i>It is clear that the penalties on the Melbourne Storm have wiped out any Rugby League interest in Melbourne</i>
     
    This isn’t clear at all, and I suspect it is wrong.  The Storm’s average home crowd was larger this year than in any previous season, and was substantially up from last year: http://stats.rleague.com/rl/crowds/melbourne.html
     
    You can’t compare TV ratings because as Sam says, hardly any games are shown live on free-to-air in Melbourne. I think Grand Finals are usually shown live, but there hadn’t been a Grand Final without Melbourne in it since 2005, so there’s no recent fair comparison.

  3. Steven,
     
    What would quailify as success in the non-traditional states?  Do you have some break-even against which we should compare these viewer numbers?
    The expansion efforts of the AFL (and presumably the NRL) reflect a desire to grow the revenue pie in light of probable market saturation in the traditional markets.  Two more clubs in the AFL means one more game eah week that can be sold to sponsors, advertisers and the all important TV networks. While I’m sure the AFL would love to see higher viewer numbers in Sydney, you’re yet to convince me these numbers are alarming.

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