According to recent CDS spreads the probability of a Greek default in the next five years is around 58%, just in front of Venezuela at 55%. Heading the other PIIGS are Ireland with a default probability of 37%, and Portugal 33%. Germany and France are desperate to avoid or defer default, since French and German banks still own a lot of eurozone debt. However, if I were the Irish finance minister I wouldn’t care less about French and German banks, and would be negotiating a restructure now. What is really interesting is the typical EU response to this mess – let’s rename default. Apparently Greece won’t consider default, but they may “re-profile” or enter into “voluntary distressed extension” according to the Financial Times last Friday. That should solve the mess.