Emerging market growth

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The latest IMF forecasts have global growth at 3.5% this year, the slowest rate since 2009. The latest growth numbers in China and in India are the weakest they have been for years, while of course Europe isn’t growing at all, and the US is stuck in its new 1-2% growth world. I’ve been enjoying travelling through many of the cities in Asia over the past couple of months, and the energy and growth in cities like Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City is visible. As I tell my students when visiting China “sure the growth numbers might not be entirely accurate but look out the window. Count the cranes. Look at people working 24 hours a day 7 days a week.” China and India may slow down – in the case of China growth is still above the forecast growth in the latest 5 year plan. But through most of Asia growth will not fall to anywhere near “normal 3-4%” rich country growth rates for the foreseeable future. There is a huge amount of work to do in continuing to build economies in all of Asia, and hundreds of millions of people willing and able to do this work. This stands in contrast with many countries in Europe. The fundamental problem is not willingness to work but ability to work. Fiscal problems are a symptom of underlying issues with low productivity, bureaucracy and red tape that hinder business creation and work. The Economist magazine reports this week on the difficulties faced by entrepeneurs in Europe. I have written earlier this year about entrepeneurship in the jewellery industry in Italy. Europe is a great place for a holiday, but a crappy place to build a business.

3 Responses to "Emerging market growth"
  1. Yes you are absolutely right the economic growth of Asian countries are slow but they are moving at a faster rate to reach the target. As compare to previous year the growth of economic in Asian countries specially India and China are really doing well.

  2. “Fiscal problems are a symptom of underlying issues with low productivity, bureaucracy and red tape that hinder business creation and work”

    The fiscal problems in Europe are related to the common currency not productivity or bureaucracy which are separate issues.

    Nations with sovereign currencies do not have fiscal problems.

  3. hi, yes you are absolutely right the economic growth of Asian countries are slow but they are moving at a faster rate to reach the target. As compare to previous year the growth of economic in Asian countries specially India and China are really doing well.

    best regards

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