Nobel predictions

Thomson Scientific are running a poll on the economics Nobel prize. They offer a choice of three ‘groups’ between (i) Elhanan Helpmann & Gene Grossman; (ii) Jean Tirole; and (iii) Robert Wilson and Paul Milgrom. (Currently, Tirole is leading the poll.) I think these groupings are not quite right. First, I would substitute Krugman for Grossman in the first group; Grossman and Paul Romer will come later for growth alone. Second, I would add Myerson to the Wilson-Milgrom group. Then it would seem that Dixit has a place in either group (i) or (ii) while Maskin could also end up in group (ii) or (iii).

Greg Mankiw is considering Feldstein, Fama or Barro based on citations.

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