Divorce probability

Thanks to Justin Wolfers we can now use the latest scientific data to predict your probability of divorce (presumably it is very low if you aren’t already married). Here is the test. And here is what is spewed out for me:

People with similar backgrounds who are already divorced:  13%

People with similar backgrounds who will be divorced over the next five years: 10%

*  In general for the five-year divorce prediction rates, those with less than 3 percent are at lower
risk, 3 – 7 percent are of average risk and more than 7 percent are at higher risk.

Those seem like pretty good odds. I won’t hire a lawyer despite the wealth of ads on the site for them. Interestingly, the test did not ask you whether and how many kids you had. I would have thought that to be predictive but maybe not.

2 thoughts on “Divorce probability”

  1. Family law clients have forwarded this link to me and used it themselves (and still ended up in my office).

    Wierdly it only asks women if they have children, not the men. Otherwise the questions are the same.

    It’s odd that the test is ‘the chances of getting divorced’. Having different questions for each gender might make sense if it calculated the chances of ‘you initiating’ or your ‘spouse initiating’ divorce?

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  2. The oddest thing I find is that it calculates your chances of getting divorced… it does not ask for the details of the couple but just and individual.

    How you you have a % chance of getting divorced and your partner has a differnet chance? Isn’t divorce like being pregnant. You’re either divorced or you’re not. How can my chance of getting divorced be different than my partners?

    I’d be willing to accept the limited number of variables if both partners were considered. At the moment this just seems rubbish.

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