The blogosphere is abuzz with prediction markets on the economics Nobel prize. I am pretty sure they don’t perform well for these types of things because there is nothing special about this year but they probably get the set of winners over the next decade or so right.
So let me put in my two cents worth. I think behavioural finance would be a good discipline candidate for this year with Thaler and others amongst the winners but I don’t think it will happen just yet. Instead, more likely is that we will get the organisational economics folk coming in. The set would include Oliver Williamson, Alchian and Demsetz with Grossman and Hart as outside possibilities. They rank high in terms of influence even though — for the first three — their contributions are not formal ones.