Nobel prize speculation

The blogosphere is abuzz with prediction markets on the economics Nobel prize. I am pretty sure they don’t perform well for these types of things because there is nothing special about this year but they probably get the set of winners over the next decade or so right.

So let me put in my two cents worth. I think behavioural finance would be a good discipline candidate for this year with Thaler and others amongst the winners but I don’t think it will happen just yet. Instead, more likely is that we will get the organisational economics folk coming in. The set would include Oliver Williamson, Alchian and Demsetz with Grossman and Hart as outside possibilities. They rank high in terms of influence even though — for the first three — their contributions are not formal ones.

6 thoughts on “Nobel prize speculation”

  1. At some point a Nobel Prize for the work transforming IO from Structure-Conduct-Performance to the game-theory based approach seems likely.
    The time this happens matches the cohort of researchers currently getting Nobel Prizes.
    Am not quite sure which set of researchers would get the credit for this though… (could Dixit be included in this group, instead of trade?)
    It is probably clearer for the innovators in the next empirical wave in IO i.e. Bresnahan and Pakes.

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  2. Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen, and Christopher Pissarides, for (undirected) search.

    This opened the door for serious quantitative work on frictions — primarily in labour, but arguably anywhere.

    It also bridged the divide between fresh-water and salt-water macro — at least, for a while…

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  3. I think Ian’s pick is a good one.  Diamond’s name does not get mentioned enough, given how many really significant papers he has:  in addition to search, there is OG with debt, taxation and the second best, and aggregate demand externalities.

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